Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 10.696145 12.530615 14.533226 16.874947 19.530973 22.442682 25.868748
2025-01-19 7.647620 10.092498 13.030798 16.790349 21.437795 26.957286 33.967367
2025-01-26 6.276432 9.147970 12.881962 18.014952 24.798042 33.356303 44.856660
2025-02-02 5.194457 8.266942 12.546377 18.799869 27.536029 39.116547 55.398483
2025-02-09 4.395622 7.572308 12.275345 19.523346 30.141235 44.812347 66.227012
2025-02-16 3.610948 6.717998 11.595073 19.497107 31.593010 48.950561 75.155564
2025-02-23 2.900562 5.825428 10.687889 18.955897 32.150899 51.768112 82.323628
2025-03-02 2.307288 5.002123 9.743220 18.191122 32.220816 53.786837 88.369907
2025-03-09 1.940870 4.511534 9.270716 18.109803 33.308634 57.354741 96.886571
2025-03-16 1.612145 4.021434 8.715121 17.795918 33.947393 60.218810 104.446372
2025-03-23 1.480560 3.909682 8.838485 18.685769 36.667751 66.548580 117.774830
2025-03-30 1.300934 3.653908 8.640868 18.949268 38.299631 71.176400 128.605521
2025-04-06 1.114365 3.348955 8.314109 18.958078 39.530188 75.306832 139.034597
2025-04-13 0.957023 3.078831 8.020154 18.998435 40.826428 79.647875 150.102437
2025-04-20 0.919111 3.108258 8.383072 20.406429 44.798316 88.870992 169.909529
2025-04-27 0.848129 3.031666 8.493712 21.295914 47.838329 96.617075 187.571072
2025-05-04 0.779436 2.944862 8.566078 22.106155 50.777155 104.337401 205.556430
2025-05-11 0.674363 2.721744 8.273606 22.078967 52.032898 109.050340 218.465480
2025-05-18 0.558465 2.429310 7.756540 21.477752 52.054329 111.456804 227.350443
2025-05-25 0.451785 2.130831 7.167090 20.626993 51.464395 112.646588 234.052319
2025-06-01 0.389044 1.966517 6.910397 20.536547 52.477317 116.949642 246.662311
2025-06-08 0.327413 1.783867 6.567443 20.187119 52.885637 120.078686 257.206946
2025-06-15 0.311025 1.778586 6.744823 21.177565 56.351371 129.440947 279.928464